Rate Lock Advisory

Monday, October 16th

Monday’s bond market has opened in negative territory to start the week. Stocks are showing gains, pushing the Dow up 58 points and the Nasdaq up 26 points. The bond market is currently down 8/32 (2.30%), but strength late Friday should keep this morning’s mortgage rates at Friday’s morning pricing. If your lender improved rates intraday Friday, you should see an increase this morning by the same amount.

8/32


Bonds


30 yr - 2.30%

58


Dow


22,930

26


NASDAQ


6,632

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Medium


Neutral


None

There is nothing of relevance being posted today. The rest of the week brings us the release of five pieces of economic data that may affect mortgage markets. However, none of them are considered to be highly important or potentially market-moving. We should still see some movement in rates this week, but they will likely be small moves.

Medium


Unknown


Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization

September's Industrial Production data will start the week’s activities at 9:15 AM ET tomorrow. This release will give us an indication of manufacturing strength by tracking output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities. Analysts are expecting it to show a 0.2% increase in output from August's level, meaning that manufacturing activity strengthened slightly last month. A large increase in production would be negative for bonds and mortgage rates as it would indicate economic strength. A decline in output would be favorable for mortgage shoppers.

Medium


Unknown


None

Overall, there is nothing scheduled this week that is of much concern. The most active day for mortgage rates could be any, and the same can be said for calmest day. I am expecting to see minor changes from day to day, but it will take something unexpected for rates to make a big move. We are heading into corporate earnings season, so watching stocks is a wise move also. Weaker than anticipated earnings from some key names should hurt stocks and boost bonds, leading to lower mortgage rates. On the other hand, a stock rally could pressure bonds and push mortgage rates a little higher. Despite the lack of any key economic releases, it still would be prudent to maintain contact with your mortgage professional if floating an interest rates and closing in the near future.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.